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View all search resultsLine in the sand: ASEAN must choose substance over speed in the South China Sea
Concluding a South China Sea Code of Conduct simply to meet a deadline would be a serious mistake. A weak, vague agreement could be worse than no agreement at all.
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Foreign ministers attend the 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), part of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, at the Philippine International Convention Center on July 23, 2026 in Pasay, Manila. (Reuters/Pool/Ezra Acayan)
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s the clock ticks down on negotiations between ASEAN and China, the 11-nation bloc finds itself at a critical crossroads. It is tempting to rush a deal over the finish line, declare a diplomatic success and project an image of regional unity.
But concluding a South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC) simply to meet a deadline would be a serious mistake. A weak, vague agreement could be worse than no agreement at all.
Rather than preserving stability, a watered-down deal would leave smaller states more exposed and risk giving Beijing greater room to shape the rules in its favor.
This situation is the result of more than two decades of uneven diplomacy.
ASEAN originally pushed for a legally binding framework in the 1990s, but China steered negotiations toward the non-binding 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DoC) instead. Since formal CoC talks began, Beijing has repeatedly slowed progress through procedural delays and prolonged debates over definitions, buying time at sea while negotiations dragged on.
While ASEAN diplomats remained at the negotiating table, China was dredging the seabed, constructing artificial islands and militarizing disputed features. Now that those activities have fundamentally altered realities in the South China Sea, Beijing appears eager to finalize a deal that could effectively lock in those gains.
What the region needs is not a quick agreement, but a credible one.
