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Analytical Commentary by Tenggara Strategics

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Jakarta Post
Opinion premium

Analysis: 200 million accounts: Financial inclusion or fiscal excess?

The government’s plan to spend an estimated Rp 11 trillion (US$619 million) opening bank accounts for more than 200 million Indonesians aged 17 and above is difficult to justify when fiscal space is already tight and financial inclusion has reached 93.61 percent. If the objective is to reach the unbanked or improve the delivery of social assistance, there is little reason to give new accounts to almost every adult, including those already banked. Scarce public funds should be targeted at people who actually need them.

19 hours ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Whoosh or noose: Uncertain future of high-speed rail project

Indonesia’s long-standing ambition to build a high-speed rail network has evolved from a national prestige project into a potential fiscal burden. Whoosh’s continuing losses and mounting debt have already drawn the Finance Ministry closer to backstopping the project. Given its history of delays, cost overruns and overly optimistic projections, the question is whether Whoosh can deliver...

1 day ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Danantara, Finance Ministry clash over SOE dividends

The Finance Ministry and state asset fund Danantara are at odds over who controls dividends from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), exposing an unresolved question at the heart of Indonesia's new state-asset architecture. Before Danantara was created, SOE dividends were paid to the state and recorded as non-tax revenue. Under the new framework, Danantara manages the shares and assets transferred ...

2 days ago

The Latest

Opinion premium

Analysis: Debate reveals little foreign policy, more on candidates’ characters

Anyone looking for a clue about the direction of Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy in the next administration would have been utterly disappointed when these issues were brought into the spotlight in Sunday’s presidential debate.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Safety standards under scrutiny after explosion in Morowali

The occupational safety and health (OSH) standard at the nickel-focused Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) is under scrutiny after explosions blasted in Tsinghan subsidiary Indonesia Tsingshan Stainless Steel’s (ITSS) nickel furnace located in the industrial park. The deadly incident adds to the series of OSH incidents in the industrial park, raising concerns over its OSH regulation implementation.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: A run-off in presidential election most likely

While polls have indicated that the Indonesian presidential race will most likely be a two-round affair because three pairs are contesting, the leading ticket in electability ratings maintains that winning the election outright in February is still possible.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Conservative ulamas’ endorsement cuts both ways for candidate Anies

By signing an “integrity pact” with a group of conservative ulamas (Islamic scholars), presidential candidate Anies Baswedan may be gaining some extra votes. But he could also lose the support of a large segment of voters who are not comfortable with the group’s Islamist agenda.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: TikTok gets controlling stake in Tokopedia

Chinese tech firm ByteDance’s social media subsidiary TikTok has bought a controlling stake in Tokopedia, Indonesian tech company GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s electronic commerce (e-commerce) platform. The corporate action led to the reentry of TikTok’s integrated online shopping service TikTok Shop after it was booted from Indonesia by a ministerial regulation that bans social commerce (s-commerce). The transaction looks set to be a major shift in the Indonesian online retail market, but it also raised concerns about foreign firms’ domination.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Survey suggests presidential debates can change electoral landscape

The first round of the 2024 election debates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU) took place on Tuesday, following the latest survey results that showed nearly 29 percent of the respondents remained undecided about their choice for the Feb. 14 election.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Conflict of interest, Minister Bahlil and Fakfak fertilizer industrial area

Less than a month after President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo officially initiated the construction of the government's fertilizer industrial area in Fakfak regency, West Papua, controversy has loomed over the National Strategic Project (PSN). At the center of the controversy is Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia and his associates, whose ties with the project have raised concerns about conflicts of interest.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: New capital Nusantara put to popular test

Moving the capital city from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan may seem like a done deal, but now the costly project, conservatively put at about US$35 billion, is being put to the popular test for the first time.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: WSKT bond defaults poses risk to insurance, pension funds

PT Waskita Karya (WSKT) and subsidiary Waskita Beton Precast’s (WSBP) failure to pay bond payments has once again entered the spotlight as bondholders, the majority of whom are insurance companies and pension funds, rejected a debt-restructuring proposal by WSKT that would extend a payment deadline by up to 10 years through a scheme of 3.5 percent interest on the principal.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Will Firli's extortion charges lead the KPK into the abyss?

Public trust in the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) may have hit a record low after the Jakarta police named the antigraft body's chairman Firli Bahuri a suspect for allegedly extorting former agriculture minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo. To regain the much-needed credibility, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo suspended Firli and appointed Nawawi Pomalongo as an interim leader, but the move did little to help the KPK regain ground.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: MIND ID on track in acquiring a controlling stake in Vale Indonesia

Vale Canada, a subsidiary of Brazilian mining firm Vale, and Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), a unit of Japanese conglomerate firm Sumitomo Group, have finally agreed to divest parts of their stake in Vale Indonesia (INCO) to Indonesian state-owned mining holding company Mineral Industri Indonesia (MIND ID). The initial deal was inked with the signing of a Head of Agreement (HoA) on the sideline of the 2023 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting, bringing MIND ID to be one step closer to becoming INCO’s controlling shareholder.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: The likelihood of a single-round 2024 presidential race

The campaign teams of the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs are confident they can win the Feb. 14, 2024 race in only one round. However, although one of the tickets, namely Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, slowly approaches the 50 percent mark in opinion surveys, experts maintain that the presidential election will most likely carry on to a runoff.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Ministry to revise regulation to cover Greater Jakarta LRT’s faulty tracks

The Transportation Ministry has confirmed that wheel wear on the Greater Jakarta LRT system, resulting in the cancellation of 103 trips daily, was caused by design flaws in the rail tracks, particularly on tight, narrow curves that do not comply with Transportation Ministry Regulation No. 60/2012. Instead of rectifying the problematic rail designs on curves, however, the ministry is currently planning to revise the regulation to accommodate the existing rail designs.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Election integrity undermined, post-polling violence becomes more likely

The integrity of the 2024 general election has been undermined by the recent decision to retain six justices on the Constitutional Court even though they have been found guilty of having committed ethics breaches when they issued a recent ruling related to the presidential election.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Indonesia begins study for extending Whoosh! to Surabaya

The plan to extend the Whoosh! high-speed rail (HSR) to Surabaya is entering its early stages. The route extension, which currently only connects Jakarta and Bandung, is necessary to increase the high-speed public transport utilization from its current state. However, there are concerns regarding the possible downsides from continued partnership with China to develop the project, as well as calls for a more thorough feasibility study on the extension plan.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Estranged Megawati can undermine Jokowi’s last year in office

The increasingly estranged relationship between President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the largest party in his coalition government, in the run up to the February general election will likely undermine the way he governs the country for the remaining 11 months of his term.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: RI seeks to kickstart coal-fired power plant retirement ahead of COP 28

The Indonesian government is planning to kickstart the early retirement of its coal-fired power plants (CFPP) ahead of the upcoming 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 28), amid the slow disbursement progress of promised foreign funding. Captive CFPPs for metal processing is said to be the obstacle to the implementation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) worth US$20 billion.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Jokowi consolidates power ahead of 2024 elections

President Joko ‘'Jokowi'' Widodo is consolidating power around himself ahead of the 2024 elections by nominating his confidante, newly installed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Agus Subiyanto to replace Adm. Yudho Margono as the Indonesian Military (TNI) commander due to retirement. The President is also reportedly replacing State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief Budi Gunawan with former Army chief of staff Gen. Dudung Abdurachman.

2 years ago
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Analysis: Kingmaker contest between Jokowi and Megawati

The announcement of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the last presidential candidate pairing to be registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) reveals a cold antagonism between sitting President Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo and former president and party matron Megawati Soekarnoputri, which could go on long beyond the 2024 elections.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Post-pandemic, pharma SOEs beset with financial problems

After reaping profits at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia’s pharmaceutical industry is now facing a weakening economy. State-owned pharmaceutical companies have been hit hardest, with problems that include significant debt, expired vaccines and a high risk of bankruptcy. Private pharma companies, meanwhile, have booked positive performances.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Ganjar-Mahfud announcement amid Jokowi’s wavering support

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the victor of the 2019 general election, has finally declared Mahfud MD to be the running mate of the party’s presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo for the 2024 election. That declaration, made amid President Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo’s shaky support for his fellow PDI-P member, was seen as the PDI-P asserting its confidence even if Jokowi eventually supports rival presidential contender Prabowo Subianto.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Pertamina to receive Rp 3.37 trillion in state capital injection

State-owned energy company PT Pertamina has quietly received a state capital injection (PMN) of Rp 3.37 trillion (US$40.47 billion), based on a presidential regulation (PP) signed on Oct. 3. Pertamina has received this PMN to fortify the state-owned enterprise's (SOE) capital structure as well as to fund the capacity of its business activities. Interestingly, the SOE received this PMN through PP No. 48/2023 on PMN allotment to PT Pertamina. The use of the presidential regulation means that the PMN was given solely through the President's authority without getting approval by the House of Representatives.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Hunter becomes hunted in Indonesia’s antigraft campaign

The police are investigating Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) head Firli Bahuri over allegations of extorting Rp 1 billion (US$65,000) from Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo to halt a corruption probe into the cabinet minister.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Waskita Karya defaults on bond payments, investors dump holdings

Indebted state-owned publicly-listed construction company PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) has caused jitters on the stock market after defaulting on Rp 941.75 billion (US$60.38 million) worth of bonds. The State-Owned Enterprises Ministry scrambled to save Waskita by forcing state banks to agree to the company’s 10-year restructuring plan, but private bondholders rebuffed the plan. Waskita’s fate is now uncertain.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Another NasDem minister bites the dust for alleged graft

Corruption allegations dealt a heavy blow to the NasDem Party for the second time, just over four months ahead of the presidential election. Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud MD said on Wednesday that the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) had named Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo a suspect over alleged malfeasance. The news came after KPK investigators searched Syarul’s official residence and office in Jakarta, as well as his houses in Makassar, South Sulawesi, while he was on a working visit to Europe last week.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: No easy feat to link Musk’s Starlink with Indonesia

Negotiations are under way for Starlink, a satellite-based broadband service owned by billionaire Elon Musk, to operate independently in Indonesia and provide internet services directly to Indonesian consumers. However, reaching a deal has become a challenge as Starlink must first meet local terms and conditions already set in place.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Now Jokowi has a party he can call his own

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo now has a political party he can call his own after his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep took control of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) this week, only three days after he was inducted as a member. This prepares the ground for the incumbent to continue exercising some control over the 2024 presidential election, in which he is constitutionally barred from running after serving two five-year terms, and to remain active in politics after he steps down in October next year.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: After investor departure, Balikpapan refinery suffers cost overrun, delays

The expansion of the Balikpapan oil refinery in East Kalimantan belonging to state-owned oil and gas holding company Pertamina has suffered a massive 30 percent cost overrun and a further delay to its completion. The Balikpapan refinery expansion is one of the few progressing refinery expansion and development projects mandated by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to reduce dependency on fuel imports, and yet it has suffered delays.

2 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Tale of two Islam-based parties in Team Anies

Two Islam-based parties could not be more different than the National Mandate Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), yet they have joined hands in nominating former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan as their presidential candidate for next year’s election. Should Anies goes on to win, the PKB and PKS will be fighting it out in determining the extent to which Islam is going to be a factor in influencing the policies of the new government.

3 years ago
Opinion premium

Analysis: Govt ‘flood the market’ strategy insufficient to curb rice prices

The government, in an attempt to rein in rising rice prices, has employed various instruments such as social assistance (Bansos) programs and market operations to flood the market with rice from the national reserves. However, rice prices have skyrocketed above initial projections made several months ago when the plan was drafted. As of Sept. 12, average retail prices of rice reached Rp 12,740 (US$83 cents)/kilogram and Rp 14,390/kg for medium rice and premium rice, respectively. Market experts now estimate that the government needs to disburse several times more rice than what has been allocated.

3 years ago
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