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View all search resultsAustralia warns of risks from aging population, falling birth rates
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People cross the street near Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, Australia, September 17, 2026.
(Reuters/Hollie Adams)
A
ustralia forecast on Monday that deaths would exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, a demographic shift with far-reaching implications for an economy grappling with an aging population, declining births and cuts to immigration.
For decades, Australia has sustained population growth by relying on immigration to offset low birth rates. But with immigration now slowing, the country is starting to look down a path already taken by many advanced economies including Japan, Germany and South Korea, where deaths have already outnumbered births.
In an Intergenerational Report published on Monday, the Treasury department identified AI, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, aging population and a shift to a service-based economy as the five most consequential transformations facing the country's economic outlook over the next four decades.
It now expects population growth to slow to 0.9 percent a year over the next four decades as fertility rates decline and net overseas migration – the difference between the number of incoming migrants and people leaving the country – continues to fall before stabilizing. That is down from an average of 1.4 percent rise over the past 40 years.
"For the first time, deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s," Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a speech.
"The number of Australians over 85 will triple by 2066, putting further demand on health services."
The left-leaning Labour government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to fend off a surge in support for the right-wing populist One Nation party that has pledged to sharply curb immigration.
Albanese's approval rating slipped this week to its lowest level since he became prime minister in 2022.
The report also warned an aging population would boost demand in the care services, with regions with older populations facing greater labor shortages in healthcare and aged care, sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers.
The report also flagged tax cuts in future budgets as Labour doles out more cost-of-living relief to Australians grappling with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates and expensive housing.
