Voters will choose mayors and governors in 16 cities and provinces in a contest widely seen as an assessment of Lee's first year in office, and a test of whether the conservative People Power Party can recover from the fallout of former President Yoon Suk Yeol's failed martial law bid in 2024.

"The question is not whether the Democratic Party wins many places, but how much it wins by," Heo Jin-jae, director of public opinion at Gallup Korea, told a media briefing last week.

"If the Democratic Party wins Seoul and Busan, they can say they won a landslide. But if they fail to take Seoul, and even Busan, it may be uncomfortable for them to call it a sweeping victory, even if they win many other regions."

Polls show Lee has scored high marks for a pragmatic focus on pocketbook issues, corporate governance reforms and a stock rally that has pushed the benchmark KOSPI to repeated records, while government spending has helped offset high energy prices, analysts say.

Critics, however, say his administration has struggled to contain housing pressures and accuse him of using the courts and parliament to shield himself and allies from criminal cases.

A decisive Democratic Party victory would strengthen Lee's mandate to continue pro-market, activist fiscal policies, and his conciliatory diplomatic posture towards North Korea, though analysts do not expect big policy changes after the vote.

Lee is likely to keep prioritizing economic management, market-friendly reforms and energy-price relief while avoiding measures that could unsettle investors, Jeremy Chan, an analyst at political consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note. He added that "policy implications [...] will likely be minimal”.

Parliament by-elections

Fourteen parliamentary by-elections will be held alongside the local contests.

Wins by Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk in Pyeongtaek and former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon in Busan's Buk-A district would bring two heavyweights into the National Assembly and could reshape jockeying for the next presidential election.

The Busan Buk-A district race is also seen as a litmus test for conservatives over divergent approaches to Yoon's legacy, while PPP gains would erode the Democratic Party's commanding majority in parliament.

Yoon, formerly of the PPP, was sentenced to life in prison in February for masterminding an insurrection and faces other trials. The scandal has deepened divisions within the conservative camp.

Some 23.5 percent of the electorate voted early last week, the National Election Commission said, the highest advance voting rate for local elections.

Lee's party already controls the presidency and parliament. A strong showing on Wednesday would give the Democratic Party its greatest concentration of political power since 2020.

The PPP currently controls 12 of the 16 local governments, but analysts expect it to lose many of them.

Gallup Korea polling in May put Lee's approval rating at 64 percent, with support for the Democratic Party at 45 percent and PPP at 22 percent..

Exit poll results are expected at 6:00 p.m. local time, with official results likely to be announced early Thursday.

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