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IMF cuts global growth outlook in response to US, China slowdowns

"The outlook has darkened significantly since April," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one."

Heather Scott (Agence France-Presse) (The Jakarta Post)
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Thu, July 28, 2022

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urging inflation and severe slowdowns in the United States and China prompted the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday to downgrade its outlook for the global economy this year and next, while giving an even starker assessment of what may lie ahead.

"The outlook has darkened significantly since April," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one."

"The world's three largest economies – the US, China and the euro area – are stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook," he said at a briefing.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut the 2022 global GDP estimate to 3.2 percent, four tenths of a point lower than the April forecast and about half the rate seen last year.

Last year's "tentative recovery" from the pandemic downturn "has been followed by increasingly gloomy developments in 2022 as risks began to materialize", the report said.

"Several shocks have hit a world economy already weakened by the pandemic," including the war in Ukraine, which has driven up global prices for food and energy, prompting central banks to raise interest rates sharply, the IMF said.

Ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns and a worsening real estate crisis have hindered economic activity in China, while the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes are slowing US growth sharply.

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