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View all search results8% GDP growth a tall order, says Nobel laureate
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Nobel laureate James A. Robinson (second left), Coordinating Economic Minister expert staff member Raden Pardede (second right), Prasasti Center for Policy Studies research director Adhi Nugroho (right) and moderator Halim Alamsyah (left) take part in a panel discussion at the 2026 Prasasti Indonesia Policy Forum in Jakarta on Oct. 13, 2026. (Antara/Fauzan)
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obel laureate James Robinson says President Prabowo Subianto’s goal of 8 percent gross domestic product growth is a tough ask but not impossible, if the right institutions are in the right place and head in the right direction.
Speaking at an event held by Jakarta-based policy think tank Prasasti in the Indonesian capital on Tuesday, Robinson presented historical data to demonstrate that 8 percent growth per annum was the exception, not the rule.
“The theory of economic growth suggests that poor countries ought to be able to grow very rapidly. So, what I'm going to show you to start with, however, is that rapid economic growth at the rate of 8 percent a year, even though it seems like it ought to be straightforward, is actually unusual,” said the British-American economist and political scientist.
Robinson, who co-authored Why Nations Fail with fellow Nobel recipient Daren Acemoglu, revealed that only 18 countries in the world had managed to average 8 percent growth for a decade or more.
These include South Korea throughout 1960s to 1980s, China in the 1980s to 2000s, Singapore and Taiwan in the 1960s to 1970s, Japan in the 1950s and 1960s as well as Myanmar in the 2000s.
“When you look around the region, you sort of say: Okay, like, what's the problem? Everybody's doing it. But this is a rather anomalous thing. [...] There's not many cases where countries grew at 8 percent a year. So, what does that mean? It means it's hard, it’s not automatic,” said Robinson.
He said natural resources had helped certain countries reach exceptional growth, for instance the Gulf countries with their oil or Botswana with its diamonds, but the trajectories of these countries changed with what they decided to do with the money they earned from the resources: Some countries “turned it into something else” while others, like Equatorial Guinea, grew very fast, then “basically squandered their resources”.
